Connor McDavid vs William Karlsson
2023-24 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
William Karlsson holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.0% vs Karlsson 55.6% (-5.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Karlsson 75.0%
Defensive zone
Karlsson 74.7%
Neutral zone
Karlsson 74.8%
Result
William Karlsson favored at 74.8%
25.2%
74.8%
McDavid
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
McDavid
Karlsson
Last 7: McDavid 5-2 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
0
McDavid
Karlsson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
0
1
McDavid
Karlsson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
3
1
McDavid
Karlsson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (803)
56.3% (739)
-4.7%
Power Play
50.0% (40)
58.6% (181)
-8.6%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (22)
47.2% (53)
-10.8%
On penalty kill, Karlsson has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. McDavid is 51.6% vs left-shot opponents (616).
McDavid shoots left. Karlsson is 57.4% vs left-shot opponents (627).
Home / Away
McDavid
Karlsson
Home
51.8% (415)
56.5% (462)
Away
50.4% (450)
56.0% (511)
By Period
McDavid
Karlsson
P1
47.5%
57.1%
P2
51.6%
55.2%
P3
55.5%
56.7%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.5%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.1%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
56.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 6, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 6, 2024 | 2 | 17:55 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 6, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Feb 6, 2024 | 1 | 13:27 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 6, 2024 | 1 | 10:20 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 6, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 1 | 15:32 | Defensive | William Karlsson |