Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (79% H2H, 14 meetings). O'Reilly wins 54.8% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 54.8% vs Johnston 48.5% (+7.0%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 25-7 in 32 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 91.8%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 84.7%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 87.2%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 87.1%
87.1%
12.9%
O'Reilly
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
25
-
7
(32 meetings)
25
7
O'Reilly
Johnston
Last 10: O'Reilly 10-0 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
5
2
O'Reilly
Johnston
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
11
3
O'Reilly
Johnston
14 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
9
2
O'Reilly
Johnston
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (815)
47.7% (614)
+7.6%
Power Play
58.0% (219)
51.6% (62)
+6.4%
Penalty Kill
49.2% (124)
51.4% (35)
-2.2%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +7.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. O'Reilly is 54.8% vs right-shot opponents (498).
O'Reilly shoots left. Johnston is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (534).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Johnston
Home
55.8% (579)
47.5% (341)
Away
54.6% (579)
48.9% (370)
By Period
O'Reilly
Johnston
P1
57.5%
49.4%
P2
54.7%
47.2%
P3
54.1%
48.2%
OT
48.0%
46.7%
Final 5 min
55.8%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
48.0%▼
54.5%
55.2%
Johnston
52.0%▲
49.5%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 00:22 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 19:40 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 19:23 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 16:55 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 19:56 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 19:47 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 19:45 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 07:09 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 00:13 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 16:23 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 10:20 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 06:44 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 05:11 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 14:00 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 04:43 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 17:41 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 13:19 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |