Scouting Report
Wyatt Johnston holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Johnston wins 46.3% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Johnston 48.1% vs Gourde 45.6% (+3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johnston 63.9%
Defensive zone
Gourde 66.7%
Neutral zone
Gourde 54.9%
Result
Yanni Gourde favored at 58.9%
41.1%
58.9%
Johnston
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Johnston
Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
1
Johnston
Gourde
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Johnston
Gourde
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Johnston
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
47.2% (458)
47.1% (463)
+0.1%
Power Play
50.9% (55)
36.4% (11)
+14.5%
Penalty Kill
51.6% (31)
29.9% (67)
+21.7%
On penalty kill, Johnston has a +21.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Johnston is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (408).
Johnston shoots right. Gourde is 45.1% vs right-shot opponents (195).
Home / Away
Johnston
Gourde
Home
47.7% (243)
42.3% (215)
Away
47.8% (301)
46.3% (326)
By Period
Johnston
Gourde
P1
48.0%
44.8%
P2
48.2%
49.1%
P3
48.0%
40.1%
OT
33.3%
100.0%
Final 5 min
47.8%
46.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Johnston
44.0%▼
47.0%
47.8%
Gourde
50.0%▲
43.5%
44.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2026 | 2 | 04:51 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 18, 2026 | 1 | 10:45 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 04:44 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |