Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.1% vs 48.2%). Look for Johnston on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 10 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Johnston 49.1% vs Gourde 48.2% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Johnston leads 9-6 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Gourde 51.4%
Defensive zone
Johnston 52.8%
Neutral zone
Johnston 50.6%
Result
Wyatt Johnston favored at 52.1%
52.1%
47.9%
Johnston
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
6
(15 meetings)
9
6
Johnston
Gourde
Last 10: Johnston 5-5 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
6
4
Johnston
Gourde
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johnston
3
2
Johnston
Gourde
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Johnston
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (2,189)
48.4% (4,954)
+0.9%
Power Play
52.6% (173)
57.4% (376)
-4.8%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (237)
39.9% (554)
+4.8%
On penalty kill, Johnston has a +4.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Johnston is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,967).
Johnston shoots right. Gourde is 46.7% vs right-shot opponents (1,937).
Home / Away
Johnston
Gourde
Home
49.2% (1,319)
49.3% (2,915)
Away
49.0% (1,280)
47.2% (2,969)
By Period
Johnston
Gourde
P1
50.1%
49.9%
P2
48.3%
47.4%
P3
48.8%
47.5%
OT
51.6%
37.0%
Final 5 min
49.3%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Johnston
52.0%▲
50.5%
49.1%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2026 | 2 | 04:51 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 18, 2026 | 1 | 10:45 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 04:44 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 3 | 11:47 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 1 | 04:39 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 13, 2024 | 2 | 08:19 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 06:31 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 3 | 19:38 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 2 | 08:33 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 3 | 03:21 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 13, 2023 | 3 | 15:27 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 13, 2023 | 1 | 00:28 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 3 | 00:47 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 1 | 12:57 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 1 | 06:40 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |