Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Gourde on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Stenlund wins 53.7% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 52.7% vs Gourde 49.7% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gourde 80.0%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 71.0%
Neutral zone
Gourde 59.5%
Result
Yanni Gourde favored at 80.0%
20.0%
80.0%
Stenlund
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Stenlund
Gourde
Last 5: Stenlund 1-4 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
1
4
Stenlund
Gourde
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
58.2% (359)
49.1% (847)
+9.1%
Power Play
47.1% (17)
79.5% (44)
-32.4%
Penalty Kill
42.0% (150)
39.5% (81)
+2.5%
On power play, Gourde has a +32.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Stenlund is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (402).
Stenlund shoots right. Gourde is 48.9% vs right-shot opponents (321).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Gourde
Home
53.6% (261)
50.1% (491)
Away
52.8% (265)
49.3% (481)
By Period
Stenlund
Gourde
P1
55.4%
54.7%
P2
51.5%
45.0%
P3
52.9%
49.4%
Final 5 min
52.0%
46.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
53.2%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2023 | 2 | 02:31 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 14, 2023 | 1 | 14:54 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Feb 14, 2023 | 1 | 11:24 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 18, 2022 | 3 | 17:29 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 18, 2022 | 3 | 17:24 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |