Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +8.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Duchene wins 58.3% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 55.6% vs Gourde 48.0% (+8.7%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 9-2 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 85.9%
Defensive zone
Duchene 61.4%
Neutral zone
Duchene 84.1%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 74.4%
74.4%
25.6%
Duchene
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
2
(11 meetings)
9
2
Duchene
Gourde
Last 10: Duchene 8-2 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
1
Duchene
Gourde
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
4
1
Duchene
Gourde
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
Gourde
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (566)
48.0% (914)
+8.5%
Power Play
61.3% (62)
54.2% (48)
+7.1%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
43.9% (123)
-21.7%
On penalty kill, Gourde has a +21.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Duchene is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (386).
Duchene shoots left. Gourde is 47.9% vs left-shot opponents (764).
Home / Away
Duchene
Gourde
Home
56.6% (318)
50.2% (512)
Away
56.4% (319)
45.7% (573)
By Period
Duchene
Gourde
P1
57.2%
50.0%
P2
55.1%
45.3%
P3
55.6%
48.6%
OT
81.3%
20.0%
Final 5 min
47.9%
47.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
56.5%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2024 | 3 | 18:02 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 10:07 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 06:50 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 17:06 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 2 | 19:39 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 2 | 18:21 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 2 | 00:32 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 1 | 19:02 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 1 | 08:37 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 1 | 08:34 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 1 | 01:00 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |