Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Henrique wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — Matthews shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 53.8% vs Matthews 58.8% (-5.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 61.3%
Defensive zone
Henrique 72.4%
Neutral zone
Henrique 56.6%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 61.3%
38.7%
61.3%
Henrique
Matthews
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Henrique
Matthews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
0
1
Henrique
Matthews
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Matthews
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (376)
59.8% (848)
-3.7%
Power Play
47.6% (21)
64.9% (37)
-17.3%
Penalty Kill
50.8% (124)
56.3% (87)
-5.5%
On power play, Matthews has a +17.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Matthews shoots left. Henrique is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (351).
Henrique shoots left. Matthews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Home / Away
Henrique
Matthews
Home
53.5% (215)
60.0% (520)
Away
55.2% (306)
59.3% (452)
By Period
Henrique
Matthews
P1
57.7%
60.2%
P2
53.8%
58.2%
P3
51.6%
60.4%
OT
100.0%
70.0%
Final 5 min
48.1%
57.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
52.0%▬
52.5%
54.5%
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 05:15 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |