Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Henrique wins 56.8% vs left-shot opponents — Matthews shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 55.1% vs Matthews 56.3% (-1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 56.3%
Defensive zone
Henrique 59.1%
Neutral zone
Henrique 54.1%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 56.3%
43.7%
56.3%
Henrique
Matthews
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Henrique
Matthews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
0
1
Henrique
Matthews
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Matthews
Edge
Even Strength
57.5% (723)
58.3% (943)
-0.8%
Power Play
73.2% (56)
55.7% (61)
+17.5%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (231)
50.7% (219)
-5.2%
On power play, Henrique has a +17.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Matthews shoots left. Henrique is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (725).
Henrique shoots left. Matthews is 57.7% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Home / Away
Henrique
Matthews
Home
56.4% (518)
59.1% (528)
Away
54.9% (492)
55.1% (695)
By Period
Henrique
Matthews
P1
56.0%
56.2%
P2
55.2%
58.1%
P3
56.2%
56.4%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.8%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
52.0%▬
52.5%
55.6%
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2025 | 2 | 16:22 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |