Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.3% vs 53.4%). Look for Henrique on defensive-zone draws (63% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 53.0% vs Matthews 53.2% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Henrique leads 11-10 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 66.0%
Defensive zone
Henrique 55.9%
Neutral zone
Henrique 51.0%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 51.2%
48.8%
51.2%
Henrique
Matthews
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
10
(21 meetings)
11
10
Henrique
Matthews
Last 10: Henrique 5-5 Matthews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
3
Henrique
Matthews
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
5
3
Henrique
Matthews
8 total
Neutral Zone
Even
4
4
Henrique
Matthews
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Matthews
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (725)
53.4% (1,169)
+2.0%
Power Play
50.6% (156)
65.8% (76)
-15.2%
Penalty Kill
47.5% (202)
41.9% (74)
+5.6%
On power play, Matthews has a +15.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Matthews shoots left. Henrique is 51.5% vs left-shot opponents (693).
Henrique shoots left. Matthews is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (841).
Home / Away
Henrique
Matthews
Home
56.4% (553)
56.5% (703)
Away
50.0% (530)
50.0% (616)
By Period
Henrique
Matthews
P1
51.7%
52.1%
P2
55.5%
54.0%
P3
52.5%
54.0%
OT
66.7%
57.7%
Final 5 min
55.1%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
52.0%▬
52.5%
53.3%
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2024 | 3 | 14:02 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 3 | 13:47 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 3 | 08:32 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 2 | 02:25 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 2 | 00:13 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 1 | 19:49 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 1 | 16:25 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 3, 2024 | 3 | 09:25 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 3, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 3, 2024 | 2 | 15:17 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 3, 2024 | 2 | 06:37 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 3, 2024 | 2 | 06:03 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 3, 2024 | 2 | 03:34 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 3, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 3, 2024 | 1 | 16:16 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 3, 2024 | 1 | 11:54 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 3, 2024 | 1 | 08:44 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 3, 2024 | 1 | 08:37 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |