Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.1% vs 51.9%). Look for Henrique on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 51.0% vs McDavid 51.8% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Henrique 51.9%
Defensive zone
McDavid 57.7%
Neutral zone
McDavid 52.1%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 50.5%
49.5%
50.5%
Henrique
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Henrique
McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
2
1
Henrique
McDavid
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
1
0
Henrique
McDavid
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
51.9% (270)
51.5% (889)
+0.4%
Power Play
58.5% (200)
63.9% (36)
-5.4%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (199)
51.2% (86)
-8.5%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Henrique is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (451).
Henrique shoots left. McDavid is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (654).
Home / Away
Henrique
McDavid
Home
53.1% (339)
50.7% (513)
Away
49.1% (330)
53.2% (498)
By Period
Henrique
McDavid
P1
48.5%
52.3%
P2
48.6%
51.6%
P3
54.2%
51.7%
OT
70.6%
100.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
56.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
52.0%▬
52.5%
51.1%
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2023 | 1 | 15:35 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 2 | 11:33 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 1 | 10:29 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 1 | 03:23 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |