Scouting Report
Adam Henrique holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 53.0% vs McDavid 51.0% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 9-7 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 69.8%
Defensive zone
Henrique 57.5%
Neutral zone
Henrique 55.2%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 50.2%
49.8%
50.2%
Henrique
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
9
(16 meetings)
7
9
Henrique
McDavid
Last 10: Henrique 4-6 McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
3
Henrique
McDavid
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
4
Henrique
McDavid
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Henrique
4
2
Henrique
McDavid
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (725)
51.6% (803)
+3.8%
Power Play
50.6% (156)
50.0% (40)
+0.6%
Penalty Kill
47.5% (202)
36.4% (22)
+11.1%
On penalty kill, Henrique has a +11.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Henrique is 51.5% vs left-shot opponents (693).
Henrique shoots left. McDavid is 51.6% vs left-shot opponents (616).
Home / Away
Henrique
McDavid
Home
56.4% (553)
51.8% (415)
Away
50.0% (530)
50.4% (450)
By Period
Henrique
McDavid
P1
51.7%
47.5%
P2
55.5%
51.6%
P3
52.5%
55.5%
OT
66.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
55.1%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
52.0%▬
52.5%
53.3%
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 9, 2024 | 2 | 19:00 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 3 | 17:07 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 2 | 19:40 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 2 | 05:53 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 1 | 03:19 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 26, 2023 | 3 | 14:48 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 26, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |
| Nov 26, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |
| Nov 26, 2023 | 1 | 17:50 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |
| Nov 26, 2023 | 1 | 17:44 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 26, 2023 | 1 | 08:38 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 26, 2023 | 1 | 08:30 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Nov 26, 2023 | 1 | 04:57 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 26, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |