Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Ryan on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Henrique wins 53.7% vs right-shot opponents — Ryan shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 52.5% vs Ryan 57.2% (-5.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Henrique 78.1%
Defensive zone
Henrique 67.1%
Neutral zone
Henrique 68.5%
Result
Adam Henrique favored at 67.7%
67.7%
32.3%
Henrique
Ryan
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Henrique
Ryan
Last 7: Henrique 2-5 Ryan
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
1
3
Henrique
Ryan
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
1
2
Henrique
Ryan
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Ryan
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (818)
59.1% (594)
-6.2%
Power Play
49.7% (163)
49.1% (55)
+0.6%
Penalty Kill
55.4% (101)
57.9% (107)
-2.5%
On even strength, Ryan has a +6.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ryan shoots right. Henrique is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (352).
Henrique shoots left. Ryan is 57.5% vs left-shot opponents (544).
Home / Away
Henrique
Ryan
Home
55.3% (571)
57.0% (398)
Away
49.8% (512)
59.5% (358)
By Period
Henrique
Ryan
P1
53.3%
56.2%
P2
52.4%
56.9%
P3
52.4%
61.1%
Final 5 min
52.8%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
52.0%▬
52.5%
52.7%
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
58.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2019 | 3 | 13:46 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Apr 3, 2019 | 3 | 09:43 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Apr 3, 2019 | 3 | 05:31 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Apr 3, 2019 | 1 | 05:01 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 29, 2019 | 3 | 01:04 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 29, 2019 | 1 | 15:32 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |
| Mar 29, 2019 | 1 | 08:32 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |