Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Henrique on offensive-zone draws (63% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 50.6% vs Ryan 55.2% (-4.7%)
H2H factor
Henrique leads 17-14 in 31 meetings
Offensive zone
Henrique 50.3%
Defensive zone
Ryan 59.1%
Neutral zone
Ryan 61.3%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 57.2%
42.8%
57.2%
Henrique
Ryan
Head-to-Head Record
17
-
14
(31 meetings)
17
14
Henrique
Ryan
Last 10: Henrique 6-4 Ryan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
5
3
Henrique
Ryan
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
7
8
Henrique
Ryan
15 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Henrique
5
3
Henrique
Ryan
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Ryan
Edge
Even Strength
50.8% (9,527)
56.6% (4,102)
-5.8%
Power Play
54.5% (1,762)
53.2% (342)
+1.3%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (1,822)
47.8% (649)
-1.6%
On even strength, Ryan has a +5.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ryan shoots right. Henrique is 49.7% vs right-shot opponents (4,629).
Henrique shoots left. Ryan is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (3,676).
Home / Away
Henrique
Ryan
Home
52.5% (6,418)
56.2% (2,559)
Away
48.8% (6,716)
54.4% (2,534)
By Period
Henrique
Ryan
P1
50.6%
55.1%
P2
51.4%
54.7%
P3
50.2%
56.0%
OT
40.6%
58.3%
Final 5 min
50.4%
52.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
52.0%▬
52.5%
50.6%
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 9, 2024 | 3 | 13:17 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 9, 2024 | 3 | 02:40 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 9, 2024 | 1 | 17:13 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Feb 9, 2024 | 1 | 16:58 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 3 | 10:34 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 1 | 14:20 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Apr 3, 2022 | 2 | 16:43 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 2 | 14:02 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Feb 13, 2020 | 3 | 16:50 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |
| Feb 13, 2020 | 3 | 05:47 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Oct 20, 2019 | 3 | 10:17 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Oct 20, 2019 | 2 | 03:46 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Apr 3, 2019 | 3 | 13:46 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Apr 3, 2019 | 3 | 09:43 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Apr 3, 2019 | 3 | 05:31 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Apr 3, 2019 | 1 | 05:01 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 29, 2019 | 3 | 01:04 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 29, 2019 | 1 | 15:32 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |
| Mar 29, 2019 | 1 | 08:32 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 11, 2017 | 3 | 17:20 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |