Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Ryan on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Henrique wins 56.4% vs right-shot opponents — Ryan shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 53.0% vs Ryan 54.6% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Henrique 81.5%
Defensive zone
Ryan 55.1%
Neutral zone
Henrique 61.1%
Result
Adam Henrique favored at 57.1%
57.1%
42.9%
Henrique
Ryan
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Henrique
Ryan
Last 6: Henrique 2-4 Ryan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
2
0
Henrique
Ryan
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
0
4
Henrique
Ryan
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Ryan
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (725)
60.8% (263)
-5.4%
Power Play
50.6% (156)
100.0% (1)
-49.4%
Penalty Kill
47.5% (202)
46.2% (145)
+1.3%
On power play, Ryan has a +49.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ryan shoots right. Henrique is 56.4% vs right-shot opponents (390).
Henrique shoots left. Ryan is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (341).
Home / Away
Henrique
Ryan
Home
56.4% (553)
56.7% (201)
Away
50.0% (530)
54.8% (208)
By Period
Henrique
Ryan
P1
51.7%
56.7%
P2
55.5%
56.8%
P3
52.5%
53.7%
Final 5 min
55.1%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
52.0%▬
52.5%
53.3%
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 9, 2024 | 3 | 13:17 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 9, 2024 | 3 | 02:40 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 9, 2024 | 1 | 17:13 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Feb 9, 2024 | 1 | 16:58 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 3 | 10:34 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 1 | 14:20 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |