Scouting Report
Adam Henrique holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Henrique on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Henrique wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 53.8% vs Backlund 49.7% (+4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Henrique 71.6%
Defensive zone
Henrique 56.8%
Neutral zone
Henrique 65.4%
Result
Adam Henrique favored at 66.3%
66.3%
33.7%
Henrique
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Henrique
Backlund
Last 9: Henrique 6-3 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
3
1
Henrique
Backlund
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Henrique
Backlund
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Henrique
2
1
Henrique
Backlund
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (376)
50.1% (891)
+6.0%
Power Play
47.6% (21)
53.1% (64)
-5.5%
Penalty Kill
50.8% (124)
47.8% (278)
+3.0%
On even strength, Henrique has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Henrique is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (351).
Henrique shoots left. Backlund is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (871).
Home / Away
Henrique
Backlund
Home
53.5% (215)
48.1% (580)
Away
55.2% (306)
51.1% (653)
By Period
Henrique
Backlund
P1
57.7%
45.1%
P2
53.8%
54.7%
P3
51.6%
49.0%
OT
100.0%
46.2%
Final 5 min
48.1%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
52.0%▬
52.5%
54.5%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 13:58 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 00:39 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 11:02 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 06:48 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 3 | 14:50 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 1 | 10:34 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 1 | 06:03 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |