Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.5% vs 54.6%). Look for Henrique on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Henrique wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 53.8% vs Sturm 53.6% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Henrique 51.7%
Defensive zone
Henrique 50.0%
Neutral zone
Henrique 52.8%
Result
Adam Henrique favored at 50.0%
50.0%
50.0%
Henrique
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
Henrique
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
3
0
Henrique
Sturm
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (376)
54.6% (271)
+1.5%
Penalty Kill
50.8% (124)
54.4% (90)
-3.6%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +3.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Henrique is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (351).
Henrique shoots left. Sturm is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (243).
Home / Away
Henrique
Sturm
Home
53.5% (215)
53.0% (168)
Away
55.2% (306)
56.0% (193)
By Period
Henrique
Sturm
P1
57.7%
58.2%
P2
53.8%
53.2%
P3
51.6%
52.3%
OT
100.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
48.1%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
52.0%▬
52.5%
54.5%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 12:12 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 12:09 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 08:59 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |