Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.8% vs 55.4%). Look for Henrique on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Henrique wins 55.2% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 53.9% vs Sturm 54.1% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Henrique 56.7%
Defensive zone
Henrique 52.0%
Neutral zone
Henrique 56.4%
Result
Adam Henrique favored at 52.0%
52.0%
48.0%
Henrique
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
Henrique
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
3
0
Henrique
Sturm
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (314)
54.1% (233)
+1.3%
Penalty Kill
54.2% (96)
59.5% (74)
-5.3%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +5.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Henrique is 55.2% vs left-shot opponents (277).
Henrique shoots left. Sturm is 55.1% vs left-shot opponents (216).
Home / Away
Henrique
Sturm
Home
53.2% (173)
54.4% (149)
Away
55.9% (256)
56.3% (158)
By Period
Henrique
Sturm
P1
58.9%
57.1%
P2
54.9%
55.0%
P3
50.0%
53.7%
OT
100.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
47.8%
55.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
58.0%▲
52.5%
54.8%
Sturm
56.0%▼
58.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 12:12 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 12:09 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 08:59 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |