Scouting Report
Adam Henrique holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Henrique wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 53.8% vs Cates 45.5% (+9.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 73.7%
Defensive zone
Henrique 73.3%
Neutral zone
Cates 53.1%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 51.1%
48.9%
51.1%
Henrique
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Henrique
Cates
Last 6: Henrique 3-3 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
2
Henrique
Cates
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
2
0
Henrique
Cates
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Henrique
Cates
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (376)
45.4% (712)
+10.7%
Power Play
47.6% (21)
42.2% (102)
+5.4%
Penalty Kill
50.8% (124)
44.7% (47)
+6.1%
On even strength, Henrique has a +10.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Henrique is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (351).
Henrique shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (541).
Home / Away
Henrique
Cates
Home
53.5% (215)
46.3% (423)
Away
55.2% (306)
43.6% (438)
By Period
Henrique
Cates
P1
57.7%
46.3%
P2
53.8%
47.1%
P3
51.6%
42.1%
OT
100.0%
18.2%
Final 5 min
48.1%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
52.0%▬
52.5%
54.5%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 07:45 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 13:12 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 05:55 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 01:28 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 08:00 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 01:22 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |