Scouting Report
Adam Henrique holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 50.6% vs Cates 43.2% (+7.6%)
H2H factor
Cates leads 8-6 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Henrique 51.4%
Defensive zone
Cates 52.3%
Neutral zone
Cates 53.1%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 51.1%
48.9%
51.1%
Henrique
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
8
(14 meetings)
6
8
Henrique
Cates
Last 10: Henrique 5-5 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
1
4
Henrique
Cates
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
4
3
Henrique
Cates
7 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Henrique
Cates
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
50.8% (9,527)
44.1% (2,742)
+6.7%
Power Play
54.5% (1,762)
43.0% (242)
+11.5%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (1,822)
34.9% (373)
+11.3%
On power play, Henrique has a +11.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Henrique is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (8,505).
Henrique shoots left. Cates is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,284).
Home / Away
Henrique
Cates
Home
52.5% (6,418)
43.8% (1,663)
Away
48.8% (6,716)
42.1% (1,694)
By Period
Henrique
Cates
P1
50.6%
44.5%
P2
51.4%
43.5%
P3
50.2%
41.2%
OT
40.6%
29.4%
Final 5 min
50.4%
41.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
52.0%▬
52.5%
50.6%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 07:45 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 13:12 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 05:55 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 01:28 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 08:00 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 01:22 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 3 | 05:57 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 3 | 01:39 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 2 | 16:46 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 2 | 05:08 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 2 | 04:51 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 2 | 04:40 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 2, 2023 | 2 | 11:08 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 2, 2023 | 1 | 13:15 | Defensive | Noah Cates |