Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Lowry on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 50.4% vs Matthews 52.2% (-2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 61.2%
Defensive zone
Lowry 86.9%
Neutral zone
Lowry 65.7%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 67.1%
67.1%
32.9%
Lowry
Matthews
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Lowry
Matthews
Last 7: Lowry 2-5 Matthews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
0
2
Lowry
Matthews
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
2
1
Lowry
Matthews
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
0
2
Lowry
Matthews
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Matthews
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (893)
52.7% (1,015)
+0.0%
Power Play
52.8% (72)
34.6% (26)
+18.2%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (215)
75.0% (8)
-35.0%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +35.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Matthews shoots left. Lowry is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (750).
Lowry shoots left. Matthews is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (661).
Home / Away
Lowry
Matthews
Home
52.4% (597)
54.8% (515)
Away
48.4% (583)
50.2% (534)
By Period
Lowry
Matthews
P1
48.5%
54.4%
P2
52.2%
50.4%
P3
50.5%
51.8%
OT
50.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
49.4%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
50.4%
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2023 | 1 | 12:38 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 19, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 3 | 01:50 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 2 | 03:55 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 1 | 15:18 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 1 | 15:02 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 1 | 03:24 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |