Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 51.6% vs Matthews 56.3% (-5.0%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 53.7%
Defensive zone
Lowry 81.8%
Neutral zone
Lowry 69.9%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 66.4%
66.4%
33.6%
Lowry
Matthews
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
Lowry
Matthews
Last 10: Lowry 4-6 Matthews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
0
3
Lowry
Matthews
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
2
1
Lowry
Matthews
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Lowry
Matthews
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Matthews
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (933)
58.3% (943)
-4.6%
Power Play
60.7% (28)
55.7% (61)
+5.0%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (227)
50.7% (219)
-8.0%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +8.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Matthews shoots left. Lowry is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (840).
Lowry shoots left. Matthews is 57.7% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Home / Away
Lowry
Matthews
Home
53.0% (583)
59.1% (528)
Away
50.6% (605)
55.1% (695)
By Period
Lowry
Matthews
P1
52.1%
56.2%
P2
51.8%
58.1%
P3
52.3%
56.4%
OT
25.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.9%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
51.8%
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2024 | 3 | 16:13 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 3 | 09:49 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 2 | 17:53 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 2 | 03:25 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 2 | 00:34 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 1 | 12:51 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 1 | 10:56 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 1 | 04:31 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 1 | 01:57 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 1 | 00:41 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |