Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Lowry on defensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 49.1% vs Matthews 53.2% (-4.4%)
H2H factor
Lowry leads 8-6 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 87.5%
Defensive zone
Lowry 62.8%
Neutral zone
Matthews 65.4%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 57.6%
42.4%
57.6%
Lowry
Matthews
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
6
(14 meetings)
8
6
Lowry
Matthews
Last 10: Lowry 5-5 Matthews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Lowry
Matthews
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
5
2
Lowry
Matthews
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
2
Lowry
Matthews
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Matthews
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (1,064)
53.4% (1,169)
-4.1%
Power Play
67.7% (65)
65.8% (76)
+1.9%
Penalty Kill
42.6% (251)
41.9% (74)
+0.7%
On even strength, Matthews has a +4.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Matthews shoots left. Lowry is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (968).
Lowry shoots left. Matthews is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (841).
Home / Away
Lowry
Matthews
Home
50.2% (671)
56.5% (703)
Away
47.8% (709)
50.0% (616)
By Period
Lowry
Matthews
P1
48.4%
52.1%
P2
50.1%
54.0%
P3
47.8%
54.0%
OT
66.7%
57.7%
Final 5 min
43.8%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
49.0%
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 14:07 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 07:54 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 06:24 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 06:07 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 15:27 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 12:50 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 10:04 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 09:43 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 24, 2024 | OT | 03:28 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 24, 2024 | 2 | 18:57 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 24, 2024 | 1 | 09:45 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 24, 2024 | 1 | 03:24 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |