Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Lowry on defensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 27 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 51.5% vs Matthews 53.9% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 49-46 in 95 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 68.9%
Defensive zone
Lowry 77.7%
Neutral zone
Lowry 54.5%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 52.7%
52.7%
47.3%
Lowry
Matthews
Head-to-Head Record
46
-
49
(95 meetings)
46
49
Lowry
Matthews
Last 10: Lowry 2-8 Matthews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
11
23
Lowry
Matthews
34 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
21
6
Lowry
Matthews
27 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
14
20
Lowry
Matthews
34 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Matthews
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (9,130)
54.0% (9,298)
-1.2%
Power Play
57.1% (455)
55.5% (530)
+1.6%
Penalty Kill
44.9% (2,139)
49.8% (482)
-4.9%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +4.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Matthews shoots left. Lowry is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,740).
Lowry shoots left. Matthews is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (6,605).
Home / Away
Lowry
Matthews
Home
53.5% (5,893)
56.3% (5,065)
Away
49.6% (5,831)
51.5% (5,245)
By Period
Lowry
Matthews
P1
51.5%
55.5%
P2
51.8%
53.3%
P3
51.4%
52.8%
OT
46.3%
56.6%
Final 5 min
52.9%
54.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
51.6%
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 15:33 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 15:29 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 05:58 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 13:00 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 08:59 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 02:23 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 14:06 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 17:14 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 13:09 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 3 | 16:13 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 3 | 09:49 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 2 | 17:53 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 2 | 03:25 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 2 | 00:34 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 1 | 12:51 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 1 | 10:56 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 1 | 04:31 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 1 | 01:57 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 1 | 00:41 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 14:07 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |