Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 53.4% vs Nelson 50.6% (+3.3%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 9-5 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 70.7%
Defensive zone
Lowry 53.1%
Neutral zone
Nelson 57.5%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 58.2%
41.8%
58.2%
Lowry
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
9
(14 meetings)
5
9
Lowry
Nelson
Last 10: Lowry 3-7 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
4
Lowry
Nelson
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Lowry
Nelson
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Lowry
Nelson
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (675)
50.7% (879)
+4.7%
Power Play
83.3% (6)
58.6% (162)
+24.7%
Penalty Kill
40.4% (89)
43.4% (198)
-3.0%
On power play, Lowry has a +24.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Lowry is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (543).
Lowry shoots left. Nelson is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Home / Away
Lowry
Nelson
Home
54.5% (402)
52.3% (621)
Away
53.3% (368)
48.9% (618)
By Period
Lowry
Nelson
P1
52.4%
48.4%
P2
56.0%
53.5%
P3
54.2%
50.3%
OT
40.0%
41.2%
Final 5 min
58.1%
50.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
53.9%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 19:18 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 18:44 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 16:17 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 05:06 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 14:32 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 02:46 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 02:35 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 3 | 18:14 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 3 | 06:50 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 2 | 19:22 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 2 | 16:58 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 2 | 00:19 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |