Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 50.4% vs Nelson 47.5% (+3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 76.3%
Defensive zone
Lowry 78.9%
Neutral zone
Lowry 50.5%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 62.9%
37.1%
62.9%
Lowry
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Lowry
Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
1
Lowry
Nelson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
0
Lowry
Nelson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (893)
46.9% (915)
+5.8%
Power Play
52.8% (72)
57.4% (94)
-4.6%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (215)
25.0% (28)
+15.0%
On penalty kill, Lowry has a +15.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Lowry is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (750).
Lowry shoots left. Nelson is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (713).
Home / Away
Lowry
Nelson
Home
52.4% (597)
48.9% (521)
Away
48.4% (583)
45.5% (516)
By Period
Lowry
Nelson
P1
48.5%
45.9%
P2
52.2%
48.0%
P3
50.5%
48.0%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
49.4%
45.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
50.4%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2023 | 2 | 09:48 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 22, 2023 | 1 | 17:35 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |