Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 52.7% vs Nelson 49.4% (+3.6%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 75.7%
Defensive zone
Lowry 80.0%
Neutral zone
Lowry 51.9%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 65.5%
34.5%
65.5%
Lowry
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
6
(11 meetings)
5
6
Lowry
Nelson
Last 10: Lowry 5-5 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
6
Lowry
Nelson
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
2
0
Lowry
Nelson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (796)
49.9% (840)
+5.9%
Power Play
54.7% (53)
52.8% (89)
+1.9%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (215)
28.6% (35)
+13.7%
On penalty kill, Lowry has a +13.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Lowry is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (672).
Lowry shoots left. Nelson is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (646).
Home / Away
Lowry
Nelson
Home
53.4% (515)
49.8% (458)
Away
52.6% (549)
49.0% (506)
By Period
Lowry
Nelson
P1
54.2%
50.1%
P2
54.4%
45.4%
P3
50.8%
52.7%
OT
37.5%
33.3%
Final 5 min
54.2%
47.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
53.0%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2022 | 3 | 08:02 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 11, 2022 | 3 | 03:36 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 11, 2022 | 3 | 01:22 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 11, 2022 | 2 | 11:42 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 11, 2022 | 2 | 11:36 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 11, 2022 | 1 | 08:12 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 11, 2022 | 1 | 01:57 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 3 | 05:41 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 2 | 08:39 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 1 | 11:29 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 1 | 05:52 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |