Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.8% vs 52.1%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 51.6% vs Nelson 51.9% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 68.9%
Defensive zone
Lowry 78.3%
Neutral zone
Lowry 57.0%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 57.0%
57.0%
43.0%
Lowry
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Lowry
Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
1
Lowry
Nelson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (933)
51.3% (1,002)
+2.4%
Power Play
60.7% (28)
58.7% (126)
+2.0%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (227)
51.9% (81)
-9.2%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +9.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Lowry is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (840).
Lowry shoots left. Nelson is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Home / Away
Lowry
Nelson
Home
53.0% (583)
52.5% (590)
Away
50.6% (605)
51.7% (619)
By Period
Lowry
Nelson
P1
52.1%
50.5%
P2
51.8%
54.4%
P3
52.3%
51.4%
OT
25.0%
47.4%
Final 5 min
53.9%
57.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
51.8%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2025 | 3 | 04:03 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |