Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Lowry on neutral-zone draws (59% H2H, 22 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 51.5% vs Nelson 48.3% (+3.3%)
H2H factor
Lowry leads 37-34 in 71 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 65.1%
Defensive zone
Lowry 74.8%
Neutral zone
Lowry 61.3%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 54.3%
54.3%
45.7%
Lowry
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
37
-
34
(71 meetings)
37
34
Lowry
Nelson
Last 10: Lowry 3-7 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
13
16
Lowry
Nelson
29 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
11
9
Lowry
Nelson
20 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
13
9
Lowry
Nelson
22 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (9,130)
47.9% (9,695)
+4.9%
Power Play
57.1% (455)
54.5% (1,132)
+2.6%
Penalty Kill
44.9% (2,139)
43.8% (783)
+1.1%
On even strength, Lowry has a +4.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Lowry is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,740).
Lowry shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Home / Away
Lowry
Nelson
Home
53.5% (5,893)
50.0% (5,845)
Away
49.6% (5,831)
46.5% (5,766)
By Period
Lowry
Nelson
P1
51.5%
48.7%
P2
51.8%
48.5%
P3
51.4%
47.7%
OT
46.3%
45.6%
Final 5 min
52.9%
47.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
51.6%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 19:18 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 18:44 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 16:17 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 05:06 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 14:32 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 02:46 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 02:35 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 3 | 18:14 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 3 | 06:50 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 2 | 19:22 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 2 | 16:58 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 2 | 00:19 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 3 | 04:03 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 26, 2023 | 2 | 09:48 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 22, 2023 | 1 | 17:35 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 11, 2022 | 3 | 08:02 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 11, 2022 | 3 | 03:36 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 11, 2022 | 3 | 01:22 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |