Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 47.5% vs Nelson 44.9% (+2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lowry 55.6%
Defensive zone
Nelson 61.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 54.4%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 52.2%
47.8%
52.2%
Lowry
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Lowry
Nelson
Last 6: Lowry 2-4 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Lowry
Nelson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
1
Lowry
Nelson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
2
Lowry
Nelson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
47.0% (783)
43.9% (715)
+3.1%
Power Play
57.1% (28)
61.5% (26)
-4.4%
Penalty Kill
45.0% (40)
41.4% (58)
+3.6%
On power play, Nelson has a +4.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Lowry is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (575).
Lowry shoots left. Nelson is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (504).
Home / Away
Lowry
Nelson
Home
49.2% (425)
42.9% (406)
Away
45.3% (426)
45.8% (393)
By Period
Lowry
Nelson
P1
53.6%
44.1%
P2
39.8%
47.2%
P3
48.5%
42.2%
OT
0.0%
30.8%
Final 5 min
52.0%
39.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
47.2%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
44.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2014 | 2 | 19:06 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 31, 2014 | 2 | 17:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 31, 2014 | 2 | 09:47 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 31, 2014 | 2 | 09:30 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 28, 2014 | 3 | 01:31 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 28, 2014 | 2 | 17:13 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |