Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Lowry on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Lowry wins 54.2% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 53.3% vs Nelson 51.6% (+2.0%)
H2H factor
Lowry leads 13-6 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 71.9%
Defensive zone
Lowry 61.3%
Neutral zone
Lowry 60.8%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 52.4%
52.4%
47.6%
Lowry
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
6
(19 meetings)
13
6
Lowry
Nelson
Last 10: Lowry 8-2 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
5
0
Lowry
Nelson
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
5
Lowry
Nelson
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
6
1
Lowry
Nelson
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (491)
50.7% (902)
+5.5%
Power Play
66.7% (18)
59.8% (169)
+6.9%
Penalty Kill
43.6% (140)
48.3% (116)
-4.7%
On power play, Lowry has a +6.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Lowry is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (428).
Lowry shoots left. Nelson is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (733).
Home / Away
Lowry
Nelson
Home
57.8% (341)
53.6% (603)
Away
49.4% (308)
49.9% (585)
By Period
Lowry
Nelson
P1
53.2%
55.4%
P2
54.4%
47.2%
P3
53.0%
52.6%
OT
80.0%
51.6%
Final 5 min
58.5%
54.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
53.8%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
51.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2019 | 3 | 18:49 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 17, 2019 | 3 | 18:40 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 17, 2019 | 3 | 10:14 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 17, 2019 | 3 | 06:05 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 17, 2019 | 3 | 00:23 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 17, 2019 | 3 | 00:17 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 17, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 17, 2019 | 2 | 17:46 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 17, 2019 | 2 | 12:50 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 17, 2019 | 2 | 07:04 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 17, 2019 | 2 | 03:33 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 17, 2019 | 2 | 00:13 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 17, 2019 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 17, 2019 | 1 | 17:29 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 17, 2019 | 1 | 15:08 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 17, 2019 | 1 | 10:35 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 17, 2019 | 1 | 06:00 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 17, 2019 | 1 | 02:37 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 17, 2019 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |