Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 50.4% vs McDavid 51.8% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 10-5 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 63.1%
Defensive zone
Lowry 73.5%
Neutral zone
Lowry 64.6%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 54.0%
54.0%
46.0%
Lowry
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
10
(15 meetings)
5
10
Lowry
McDavid
Last 10: Lowry 2-8 McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
3
4
Lowry
McDavid
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
3
Lowry
McDavid
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
3
Lowry
McDavid
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (893)
51.5% (889)
+1.2%
Power Play
52.8% (72)
63.9% (36)
-11.1%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (215)
51.2% (86)
-11.2%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +11.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Lowry is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (750).
Lowry shoots left. McDavid is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (654).
Home / Away
Lowry
McDavid
Home
52.4% (597)
50.7% (513)
Away
48.4% (583)
53.2% (498)
By Period
Lowry
McDavid
P1
48.5%
52.3%
P2
52.2%
51.6%
P3
50.5%
51.7%
OT
50.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
49.4%
56.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
50.4%
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2023 | 3 | 15:43 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 3 | 13:48 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 3 | 13:44 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 3 | 13:20 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 3 | 04:55 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 2 | 15:01 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 2 | 14:52 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 2 | 06:12 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 1 | 18:14 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 1 | 17:53 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 1 | 11:34 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 1 | 09:24 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 1 | 06:28 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 1 | 01:43 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 2 | 10:31 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |