Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (81% H2H, 42 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 51.5% vs McDavid 47.8% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 78-55 in 133 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 84.1%
Defensive zone
Lowry 50.4%
Neutral zone
McDavid 63.5%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 65.6%
34.4%
65.6%
Lowry
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
55
-
78
(133 meetings)
55
78
Lowry
McDavid
Last 10: Lowry 5-5 McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
8
34
Lowry
McDavid
42 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
22
20
Lowry
McDavid
42 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
25
24
Lowry
McDavid
49 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (9,130)
47.7% (8,358)
+5.1%
Power Play
57.1% (455)
52.0% (371)
+5.1%
Penalty Kill
44.9% (2,139)
43.4% (279)
+1.5%
On power play, Lowry has a +5.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Lowry is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,740).
Lowry shoots left. McDavid is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,903).
Home / Away
Lowry
McDavid
Home
53.5% (5,893)
49.3% (4,570)
Away
49.6% (5,831)
46.1% (4,438)
By Period
Lowry
McDavid
P1
51.5%
46.5%
P2
51.8%
48.7%
P3
51.4%
48.3%
OT
46.3%
40.9%
Final 5 min
52.9%
50.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
51.6%
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 02:17 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 17:02 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 09:33 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 06:33 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 00:46 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 00:38 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 00:30 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 15:35 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 10:23 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 04:12 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 15:12 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 05:30 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 1 | 01:58 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 2 | 18:23 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 2 | 10:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 2 | 07:56 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 1 | 14:56 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 3 | 14:56 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 3 | 13:05 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |