Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (90% H2H, 10 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 49.1% vs McDavid 51.0% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 18-10 in 28 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 56.8%
Defensive zone
Lowry 79.8%
Neutral zone
Lowry 59.9%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 61.8%
61.8%
38.2%
Lowry
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
18
(28 meetings)
10
18
Lowry
McDavid
Last 10: Lowry 6-4 McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
9
Lowry
McDavid
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
6
5
Lowry
McDavid
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
3
4
Lowry
McDavid
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (1,064)
51.6% (803)
-2.3%
Power Play
67.7% (65)
50.0% (40)
+17.7%
Penalty Kill
42.6% (251)
36.4% (22)
+6.2%
On power play, Lowry has a +17.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Lowry is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (968).
Lowry shoots left. McDavid is 51.6% vs left-shot opponents (616).
Home / Away
Lowry
McDavid
Home
50.2% (671)
51.8% (415)
Away
47.8% (709)
50.4% (450)
By Period
Lowry
McDavid
P1
48.4%
47.5%
P2
50.1%
51.6%
P3
47.8%
55.5%
OT
66.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
43.8%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
49.0%
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2024 | 3 | 14:56 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 3 | 13:05 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 3 | 10:39 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 3 | 02:41 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 10:34 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 10:26 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 10:10 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 06:54 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 1 | 15:47 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 1 | 12:42 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 1 | 07:39 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 16:36 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 14:48 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 06:34 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 00:18 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 19:19 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 03:51 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 1 | 18:27 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |