Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 53.4% vs McDavid 47.9% (+6.3%)
H2H factor
Lowry leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 65.9%
Defensive zone
Lowry 83.7%
Neutral zone
Lowry 66.1%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 60.9%
60.9%
39.1%
Lowry
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
Lowry
McDavid
Last 10: Lowry 5-5 McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
3
Lowry
McDavid
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
3
1
Lowry
McDavid
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
2
1
Lowry
McDavid
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (675)
47.5% (650)
+7.9%
Power Play
83.3% (6)
48.6% (72)
+34.7%
Penalty Kill
40.4% (89)
46.5% (43)
-6.1%
On power play, Lowry has a +34.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Lowry is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (543).
Lowry shoots left. McDavid is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (554).
Home / Away
Lowry
McDavid
Home
54.5% (402)
50.2% (400)
Away
53.3% (368)
44.7% (365)
By Period
Lowry
McDavid
P1
52.4%
47.5%
P2
56.0%
48.6%
P3
54.2%
46.7%
OT
40.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
58.1%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
53.9%
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 02:17 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 17:02 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 09:33 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 06:33 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 00:46 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 00:38 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 00:30 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 15:35 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 10:23 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 04:12 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |