Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Vilardi on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Lowry wins 57.7% vs right-shot opponents — Vilardi shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 52.7% vs Vilardi 47.6% (+7.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Vilardi 56.2%
Defensive zone
Lowry 82.5%
Neutral zone
Lowry 71.6%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 59.3%
59.3%
40.7%
Lowry
Vilardi
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Lowry
Vilardi
Last 5: Lowry 3-2 Vilardi
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Vilardi
1
2
Lowry
Vilardi
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
2
0
Lowry
Vilardi
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Vilardi
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (796)
46.5% (101)
+9.3%
Power Play
54.7% (53)
43.3% (30)
+11.4%
On power play, Lowry has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Vilardi shoots right. Lowry is 57.7% vs right-shot opponents (392).
Lowry shoots left. Vilardi is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (84).
Home / Away
Lowry
Vilardi
Home
53.4% (515)
51.6% (64)
Away
52.6% (549)
40.3% (67)
By Period
Lowry
Vilardi
P1
54.2%
48.9%
P2
54.4%
42.9%
P3
50.8%
45.2%
Final 5 min
54.2%
41.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
53.0%
Vilardi
40.0%▼
43.5%
45.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2022 | 3 | 17:25 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 16:03 | Offensive | Gabriel Vilardi |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 01:17 | Offensive | Gabriel Vilardi |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 01:10 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 28, 2021 | 2 | 05:21 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |