Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Vilardi on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 51.5% vs Vilardi 46.9% (+4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Vilardi 68.2%
Defensive zone
Lowry 87.9%
Neutral zone
Lowry 71.7%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 54.9%
54.9%
45.1%
Lowry
Vilardi
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Lowry
Vilardi
Last 9: Lowry 5-4 Vilardi
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Vilardi
1
4
Lowry
Vilardi
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
3
0
Lowry
Vilardi
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
0
Lowry
Vilardi
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Vilardi
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (9,130)
45.8% (1,053)
+7.0%
Power Play
57.1% (455)
51.3% (195)
+5.8%
Penalty Kill
44.9% (2,139)
48.1% (27)
-3.2%
On even strength, Lowry has a +7.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Vilardi shoots right. Lowry is 52.2% vs right-shot opponents (3,984).
Lowry shoots left. Vilardi is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (934).
Home / Away
Lowry
Vilardi
Home
53.5% (5,893)
47.2% (659)
Away
49.6% (5,831)
46.1% (616)
By Period
Lowry
Vilardi
P1
51.5%
49.6%
P2
51.8%
43.7%
P3
51.4%
46.8%
OT
46.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
52.9%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
51.6%
Vilardi
40.0%▼
43.5%
46.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2023 | 2 | 13:31 | Offensive | Gabriel Vilardi |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 2 | 03:46 | Offensive | Gabriel Vilardi |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 3 | 11:53 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 2 | 16:04 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 3 | 17:25 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 16:03 | Offensive | Gabriel Vilardi |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 01:17 | Offensive | Gabriel Vilardi |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 01:10 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 28, 2021 | 2 | 05:21 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |