Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.7% vs 54.6%). Look for Evans on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Lowry wins 59.3% vs right-shot opponents — Evans shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 53.1% vs Evans 53.9% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lowry 51.9%
Defensive zone
Evans 55.0%
Neutral zone
Lowry 55.8%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 53.5%
53.5%
46.5%
Lowry
Evans
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Lowry
Evans
Last 5: Lowry 3-2 Evans
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
2
Lowry
Evans
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
2
0
Lowry
Evans
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Evans
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (459)
53.6% (349)
+1.7%
Power Play
75.0% (4)
70.0% (10)
+5.0%
Penalty Kill
41.4% (70)
55.9% (161)
-14.5%
On penalty kill, Evans has a +14.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Evans shoots right. Lowry is 59.3% vs right-shot opponents (145).
Lowry shoots left. Evans is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (386).
Home / Away
Lowry
Evans
Home
53.4% (268)
54.1% (290)
Away
54.0% (265)
55.2% (230)
By Period
Lowry
Evans
P1
52.1%
60.1%
P2
55.8%
53.5%
P3
53.4%
50.3%
OT
44.4%
33.3%
Final 5 min
56.6%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
68.0%▲
55.5%
53.7%
Evans
54.0%▼
57.0%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 3, 2025 | 3 | 12:16 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 3 | 10:14 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 2 | 11:53 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 2 | 07:11 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 1 | 07:38 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |