Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Lowry wins 57.7% vs right-shot opponents — Evans shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 52.7% vs Evans 49.8% (+3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lowry 52.7%
Defensive zone
Evans 50.9%
Neutral zone
Lowry 50.6%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 50.2%
49.8%
50.2%
Lowry
Evans
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Lowry
Evans
Last 7: Lowry 3-4 Evans
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
3
Lowry
Evans
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
2
1
Lowry
Evans
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Evans
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (796)
51.3% (739)
+4.5%
Power Play
54.7% (53)
53.3% (15)
+1.4%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (215)
43.0% (172)
-0.7%
On even strength, Lowry has a +4.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Evans shoots right. Lowry is 57.7% vs right-shot opponents (392).
Lowry shoots left. Evans is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (667).
Home / Away
Lowry
Evans
Home
53.4% (515)
52.1% (503)
Away
52.6% (549)
47.0% (423)
By Period
Lowry
Evans
P1
54.2%
50.5%
P2
54.4%
47.7%
P3
50.8%
51.3%
OT
37.5%
40.0%
Final 5 min
54.2%
51.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
53.0%
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
49.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2022 | 3 | 19:51 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Apr 11, 2022 | 3 | 19:15 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Apr 11, 2022 | 2 | 11:15 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Apr 11, 2022 | 2 | 04:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Apr 11, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Mar 1, 2022 | 3 | 16:41 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 1, 2022 | 1 | 18:28 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |