Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Lowry wins 60.4% vs right-shot opponents — Evans shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 53.4% vs Evans 55.4% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lowry 55.5%
Defensive zone
Evans 62.3%
Neutral zone
Evans 52.4%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 52.3%
52.3%
47.7%
Lowry
Evans
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Lowry
Evans
Last 5: Lowry 3-2 Evans
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
2
Lowry
Evans
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
2
0
Lowry
Evans
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Evans
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (675)
56.2% (477)
-0.8%
Power Play
83.3% (6)
70.0% (10)
+13.3%
Penalty Kill
40.4% (89)
55.4% (204)
-15.0%
On penalty kill, Evans has a +15.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Evans shoots right. Lowry is 60.4% vs right-shot opponents (227).
Lowry shoots left. Evans is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (516).
Home / Away
Lowry
Evans
Home
54.5% (402)
55.3% (374)
Away
53.3% (368)
57.1% (317)
By Period
Lowry
Evans
P1
52.4%
58.5%
P2
56.0%
55.7%
P3
54.2%
53.9%
OT
40.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
58.1%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
53.9%
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
56.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 3, 2025 | 3 | 12:16 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 3 | 10:14 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 2 | 11:53 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 2 | 07:11 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 1 | 07:38 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |