Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Lowry wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 55.1% vs Duchene 52.8% (+2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 76.7%
Defensive zone
Duchene 58.1%
Neutral zone
Duchene 61.4%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 63.9%
36.1%
63.9%
Lowry
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Lowry
Duchene
Last 6: Lowry 1-5 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Lowry
Duchene
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
4
Lowry
Duchene
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
59.0% (527)
52.6% (1,112)
+6.4%
Power Play
44.2% (43)
56.0% (193)
-11.8%
Penalty Kill
44.6% (101)
49.0% (49)
-4.4%
On power play, Duchene has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Lowry is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (401).
Lowry shoots left. Duchene is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (873).
Home / Away
Lowry
Duchene
Home
57.9% (330)
55.7% (652)
Away
54.0% (341)
50.4% (702)
By Period
Lowry
Duchene
P1
55.8%
51.4%
P2
55.8%
53.9%
P3
56.1%
53.3%
OT
50.0%
55.6%
Final 5 min
62.2%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
55.9%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
53.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2018 | 3 | 18:55 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 2, 2018 | 3 | 17:34 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 2, 2018 | 3 | 14:38 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 2, 2018 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 3, 2017 | 2 | 03:18 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 3, 2017 | 1 | 13:42 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |