Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 49.1% vs Duchene 55.6% (-7.5%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Lowry 57.6%
Defensive zone
Lowry 87.5%
Neutral zone
Lowry 73.4%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 72.9%
72.9%
27.1%
Lowry
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Lowry
Duchene
Last 10: Lowry 3-7 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
3
Lowry
Duchene
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
3
0
Lowry
Duchene
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
4
Lowry
Duchene
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (1,064)
56.5% (566)
-7.2%
Power Play
67.7% (65)
61.3% (62)
+6.4%
Penalty Kill
42.6% (251)
22.2% (9)
+20.4%
On penalty kill, Lowry has a +20.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Lowry is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (968).
Lowry shoots left. Duchene is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (386).
Home / Away
Lowry
Duchene
Home
50.2% (671)
56.6% (318)
Away
47.8% (709)
56.4% (319)
By Period
Lowry
Duchene
P1
48.4%
57.2%
P2
50.1%
55.1%
P3
47.8%
55.6%
OT
66.7%
81.3%
Final 5 min
43.8%
47.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
49.0%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2024 | 2 | 19:41 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 3 | 06:07 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 2 | 13:24 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 2 | 03:50 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 1 | 00:08 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 2 | 14:17 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 1 | 06:46 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 3 | 15:57 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |