Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.8% vs 52.4%). Look for Lowry on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 51.6% vs Duchene 52.1% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 77.8%
Defensive zone
Lowry 73.5%
Neutral zone
Lowry 57.4%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 56.7%
56.7%
43.3%
Lowry
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Lowry
Duchene
Last 7: Lowry 4-3 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
2
Lowry
Duchene
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
4
0
Lowry
Duchene
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Lowry
Duchene
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (933)
53.0% (723)
+0.7%
Power Play
60.7% (28)
49.5% (101)
+11.2%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (227)
43.8% (16)
-1.1%
On power play, Lowry has a +11.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Lowry is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (840).
Lowry shoots left. Duchene is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (517).
Home / Away
Lowry
Duchene
Home
53.0% (583)
54.9% (408)
Away
50.6% (605)
50.0% (432)
By Period
Lowry
Duchene
P1
52.1%
52.5%
P2
51.8%
51.7%
P3
52.3%
53.6%
OT
25.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
53.9%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
51.8%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2025 | 2 | 15:45 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 1 | 17:35 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 1, 2024 | 3 | 12:07 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 1, 2024 | 1 | 18:54 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 1, 2024 | 1 | 18:50 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 2 | 03:59 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 1 | 01:10 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |