Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Lowry on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 50.4% vs Duchene 52.1% (-2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 87.0%
Defensive zone
Lowry 87.3%
Neutral zone
Lowry 62.8%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 62.5%
62.5%
37.5%
Lowry
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Lowry
Duchene
Last 6: Lowry 3-3 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
2
Lowry
Duchene
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
3
1
Lowry
Duchene
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (893)
53.9% (193)
-1.2%
Power Play
52.8% (72)
49.2% (65)
+3.6%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (215)
100.0% (1)
-60.0%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +60.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Lowry is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (750).
Lowry shoots left. Duchene is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (154).
Home / Away
Lowry
Duchene
Home
52.4% (597)
54.9% (113)
Away
48.4% (583)
51.4% (146)
By Period
Lowry
Duchene
P1
48.5%
54.9%
P2
52.2%
52.7%
P3
50.5%
51.9%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
49.4%
60.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
50.4%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2023 | 3 | 09:58 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 1 | 11:03 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 2 | 06:18 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 3 | 12:03 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 2 | 14:07 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 2 | 04:24 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |