Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Zibanejad on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Lowry wins 60.4% vs right-shot opponents — Zibanejad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 53.4% vs Zibanejad 51.6% (+2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zibanejad 67.2%
Defensive zone
Lowry 50.9%
Neutral zone
Zibanejad 56.9%
Result
Mika Zibanejad favored at 58.9%
41.1%
58.9%
Lowry
Zibanejad
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Lowry
Zibanejad
Last 9: Lowry 3-6 Zibanejad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Lowry
Zibanejad
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
1
2
Lowry
Zibanejad
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
0
2
Lowry
Zibanejad
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Zibanejad
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (675)
53.4% (770)
+2.0%
Power Play
83.3% (6)
46.2% (39)
+37.1%
Penalty Kill
40.4% (89)
44.7% (141)
-4.3%
On power play, Lowry has a +37.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zibanejad shoots right. Lowry is 60.4% vs right-shot opponents (227).
Lowry shoots left. Zibanejad is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (697).
Home / Away
Lowry
Zibanejad
Home
54.5% (402)
49.0% (429)
Away
53.3% (368)
54.1% (521)
By Period
Lowry
Zibanejad
P1
52.4%
53.0%
P2
56.0%
51.1%
P3
54.2%
51.0%
OT
40.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
58.1%
56.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
53.9%
Zibanejad
50.0%▼
51.5%
51.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 16:58 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 16:53 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 14:56 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 18:19 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 12:51 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 06:50 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 13:26 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 10:06 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |