Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.8% vs 52.0%). Look for Zibanejad on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Lowry wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Zibanejad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 51.6% vs Zibanejad 51.8% (-0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zibanejad 60.1%
Defensive zone
Lowry 72.7%
Neutral zone
Lowry 53.7%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 53.3%
53.3%
46.7%
Lowry
Zibanejad
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Lowry
Zibanejad
Last 8: Lowry 3-5 Zibanejad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
1
2
Lowry
Zibanejad
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Lowry
Zibanejad
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
1
2
Lowry
Zibanejad
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Zibanejad
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (933)
52.9% (870)
+0.8%
Power Play
60.7% (28)
53.5% (43)
+7.2%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (227)
46.2% (143)
-3.5%
On power play, Lowry has a +7.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zibanejad shoots right. Lowry is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (348).
Lowry shoots left. Zibanejad is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (748).
Home / Away
Lowry
Zibanejad
Home
53.0% (583)
55.1% (501)
Away
50.6% (605)
49.2% (555)
By Period
Lowry
Zibanejad
P1
52.1%
57.5%
P2
51.8%
50.7%
P3
52.3%
47.9%
OT
25.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
53.9%
50.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
51.8%
Zibanejad
50.0%▼
51.5%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2025 | 3 | 14:53 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 3 | 09:46 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 3 | 05:19 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 2 | 15:10 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 3 | 11:36 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 3 | 07:49 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 2 | 08:58 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |