Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Lowry on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Lowry wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 51.6% vs Schmaltz 49.4% (+2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 76.9%
Defensive zone
Lowry 91.6%
Neutral zone
Lowry 74.2%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 76.8%
76.8%
23.2%
Lowry
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Lowry
Schmaltz
Last 7: Lowry 5-2 Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
0
1
Lowry
Schmaltz
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
3
1
Lowry
Schmaltz
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
2
0
Lowry
Schmaltz
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (933)
48.1% (268)
+5.6%
Power Play
60.7% (28)
50.5% (91)
+10.2%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (227)
58.8% (17)
-16.1%
On penalty kill, Schmaltz has a +16.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Lowry is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (348).
Lowry shoots left. Schmaltz is 48.1% vs left-shot opponents (291).
Home / Away
Lowry
Schmaltz
Home
53.0% (583)
49.0% (206)
Away
50.6% (605)
49.4% (170)
By Period
Lowry
Schmaltz
P1
52.1%
53.6%
P2
51.8%
46.2%
P3
52.3%
50.4%
OT
25.0%
16.7%
Final 5 min
53.9%
39.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
51.8%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
49.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2025 | 3 | 19:15 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 2 | 10:53 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 1 | 14:16 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 1 | 03:36 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 2 | 18:51 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 2 | 18:40 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |