Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Lowry wins 60.4% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 53.4% vs Schmaltz 46.6% (+7.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 81.2%
Defensive zone
Lowry 81.8%
Neutral zone
Schmaltz 51.3%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 58.0%
42.0%
58.0%
Lowry
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Lowry
Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
0
2
Lowry
Schmaltz
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
0
Lowry
Schmaltz
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
0
Lowry
Schmaltz
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (675)
45.9% (665)
+9.5%
Power Play
83.3% (6)
46.8% (111)
+36.5%
Penalty Kill
40.4% (89)
50.0% (24)
-9.6%
On power play, Lowry has a +36.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Lowry is 60.4% vs right-shot opponents (227).
Lowry shoots left. Schmaltz is 41.7% vs left-shot opponents (559).
Home / Away
Lowry
Schmaltz
Home
54.5% (402)
44.7% (409)
Away
53.3% (368)
47.6% (391)
By Period
Lowry
Schmaltz
P1
52.4%
40.3%
P2
56.0%
47.6%
P3
54.2%
51.0%
OT
40.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
58.1%
40.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
53.9%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
46.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 10:53 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 08:36 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 07:46 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 17:05 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |