Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Lowry wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 51.6% vs Carrick 53.7% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lowry 67.2%
Defensive zone
Lowry 66.5%
Neutral zone
Lowry 66.1%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 66.3%
66.3%
33.7%
Lowry
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
3
(3 meetings)
0
3
Lowry
Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
1
Lowry
Carrick
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
2
Lowry
Carrick
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (933)
53.8% (654)
-0.1%
Power Play
60.7% (28)
0.0% (2)
+60.7%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (227)
63.9% (36)
-21.2%
On power play, Lowry has a +60.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Lowry is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (348).
Lowry shoots left. Carrick is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (503).
Home / Away
Lowry
Carrick
Home
53.0% (583)
50.0% (328)
Away
50.6% (605)
58.0% (364)
By Period
Lowry
Carrick
P1
52.1%
56.7%
P2
51.8%
51.1%
P3
52.3%
54.8%
Final 5 min
53.9%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
51.8%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2025 | 2 | 12:30 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 1 | 05:23 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 1 | 05:18 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |