Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Lowry on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Lowry wins 57.7% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 52.7% vs Stamkos 50.9% (+2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 67.5%
Defensive zone
Lowry 79.1%
Neutral zone
Lowry 66.2%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 61.4%
61.4%
38.6%
Lowry
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Lowry
Stamkos
Last 6: Lowry 4-2 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Lowry
Stamkos
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
3
0
Lowry
Stamkos
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Lowry
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (796)
49.3% (789)
+6.5%
Power Play
54.7% (53)
56.9% (181)
-2.2%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (215)
54.1% (98)
-11.8%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Lowry is 57.7% vs right-shot opponents (392).
Lowry shoots left. Stamkos is 52.4% vs left-shot opponents (798).
Home / Away
Lowry
Stamkos
Home
53.4% (515)
52.0% (512)
Away
52.6% (549)
50.2% (556)
By Period
Lowry
Stamkos
P1
54.2%
42.1%
P2
54.4%
56.4%
P3
50.8%
53.7%
OT
37.5%
62.5%
Final 5 min
54.2%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
53.0%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2022 | 3 | 19:45 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 1 | 18:21 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 3 | 12:14 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 3 | 08:12 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 3 | 03:38 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 1 | 03:08 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |