Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Lowry wins 60.4% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 53.4% vs Stamkos 54.6% (-1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 83.7%
Defensive zone
Lowry 78.8%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 50.2%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 50.2%
49.8%
50.2%
Lowry
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Lowry
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
0
Lowry
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (675)
56.1% (342)
-0.7%
Power Play
83.3% (6)
53.3% (92)
+30.0%
Penalty Kill
40.4% (89)
62.5% (8)
-22.1%
On power play, Lowry has a +30.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Lowry is 60.4% vs right-shot opponents (227).
Lowry shoots left. Stamkos is 57.2% vs left-shot opponents (325).
Home / Away
Lowry
Stamkos
Home
54.5% (402)
53.4% (208)
Away
53.3% (368)
57.7% (234)
By Period
Lowry
Stamkos
P1
52.4%
55.6%
P2
56.0%
52.8%
P3
54.2%
59.1%
OT
40.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
58.1%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
53.9%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 11:41 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |