Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Lowry on neutral-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings). Lowry wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 51.6% vs Stamkos 49.9% (+1.9%)
H2H factor
Lowry leads 10-5 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Stamkos 82.5%
Defensive zone
Lowry 87.6%
Neutral zone
Lowry 58.3%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 57.9%
57.9%
42.1%
Lowry
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
5
(15 meetings)
10
5
Lowry
Stamkos
Last 10: Lowry 9-1 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
3
Lowry
Stamkos
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
3
1
Lowry
Stamkos
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
7
1
Lowry
Stamkos
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (933)
49.3% (670)
+4.4%
Power Play
60.7% (28)
53.7% (121)
+7.0%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (227)
33.3% (3)
+9.4%
On penalty kill, Lowry has a +9.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Lowry is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (348).
Lowry shoots left. Stamkos is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (610).
Home / Away
Lowry
Stamkos
Home
53.0% (583)
54.0% (400)
Away
50.6% (605)
45.7% (394)
By Period
Lowry
Stamkos
P1
52.1%
48.6%
P2
51.8%
54.5%
P3
52.3%
45.4%
OT
25.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
53.9%
46.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
51.8%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2025 | 2 | 17:34 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 09:01 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 2 | 06:56 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 2 | 01:11 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 1 | 06:30 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 1 | 04:18 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 30, 2024 | 3 | 17:27 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 30, 2024 | 3 | 14:46 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 30, 2024 | 2 | 16:50 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 30, 2024 | 2 | 10:06 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 30, 2024 | 2 | 03:35 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 30, 2024 | 1 | 19:20 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 30, 2024 | 1 | 03:37 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 08:02 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 2 | 05:29 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |